Because Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) is an important tool for generating policy relevant information and an instantiation of fundamental ecology, we might hope the answer was YES.  But the Thematic revealed more NO answers.

Jorge Soberon’s keynote address explored the ecological concepts and data essential to prediction. Many models are available but they address a restricted set of concepts. What can we do better?

Novel data sources may open new doors model building.  Paleo data may allow better reconstruction of climate niches (David Nogues-Bravo) and allow better model validation (Frederik Saltre).  With more detailed data trait based SDM may also be possible (Xavier Morin, Frederik Saltre) allowing independent model validation.   Without this we may be building models on severely biased data (Jaime Garcia-Marquez).

What if the answer is really NO?  Including ecological details may be more difficult than ecological interpretations.  By analysing climate data we may be able to prioritise management efforts (Ralf Ohlemuller).  Complimentarily, strategic modelling may help develop tactics for management and address evolutionary issues in ecological management (Justin Travis).

So where did the YES answers come from?

Novel methods could come from a Bayesian framework (Greg McInerny, Bob O’Hara, Drew Purves), addressing the ecological features that SDM lacks (Jorge Soberon).  Many approaches exist for sampling errors (Bob O’Hara) and we can correct for fine scale heterogeneity (Greg McInerny).  These approaches could be combined with mechanistic SDM (Greg McInerny, Drew Purves).

Whilst not a YES, we might have a MAYBE.

An excellent Presidential Address from Prof. Charles Godfray on the various means of controlling malaria. He made a call for increased investment in the very effective means of control through bed nets and drugs.

However, there is a real risk that due to increasing resistance the efficiency of these may decline and new approaches may be needed. This talk showed the importance of using models to explore the likely effectiveness of the various options. The two key messages were firstly that we still know remarkably little about the basic ecology of this system, which surely must be a research priority, and secondly that modelling the dynamics is an essential cost-effective early component of any scheme.

Prof. William Sutherland

Today’s session highlighted the breadth of approaches used in studying the impacts of disturbance in plant communities: from the presentation of the oldest lowland pollen record from Amazonia (Macarena Cardenas) to remote sensing exploring the potential of the latest radar satellites to estimate forest carbon stocks (Andreas Huth).  The focus was on tropical forests but there were also insightful explorations into the rooting impacts of wild boar in Spain (C. Bueno), and methodological approaches to determining drivers of change in Scottish plant communities (Louise Ross). 

The key note address by Hermann Behling highlighted the importance of taking a long-term perspective. His review of palaeoecological records of vegetation change across Amazonia showed that forest extent appears to have changed in response to glacial-intergalcial cycles, contracting , not fragmenting, during glaciations. He also showed several records in which increasing human impact is evident since the Late Glacial period in the form of increased fire frequency and illustrated the effect of post glacial sea level rise on vegetation communities in coastal areas. 

Other themes to emerge from the presentations and discussions included the need to link palaeoecological charcoal records of the impacts of fire to historical records from ongoing monitoring projects (J Barlow) and the importance of plant traits for interpreting the effects of disturbance events on diversity (Caroline Tucker; Tim Baker). The importance of the oft-cited intermediate diversity hypothesis for tropical forests was also questioned (Frans Bongers).

Finally, two talks used modelling approaches to explore how disturbance events may (S Puertz), or may not (M Gloor), be important for determining large-scale trends in forest carbon stocks.

The Advances in Modelling Ecological Data session showcased a remarkable diversity of modelling tools and statistical approaches for understanding processes operating at ecological and evolutionary scales.  Perhaps the key message that arose from this session was that both the scope and the depth of questions that can now be addressed have been increased by the development of tools that are well matched to the question at hand and the available data, rather than relying on standard approaches or ?canned? routines. A number of talks in particular had much to say on this.

The keynote speaker, Aaron King, emphasised this philosophy while introducing a very general software tool (pomp) for fitting mechanistic ecological time series models.

Rob Freckleton and Mathew Spencer demonstrated the benefits of a more phenomological approach to studying population dynamics, when the available data is constrained by empirical considerations.

Several presenters (Dave Hodgson, Tim Coulson, and Isabelle Smallegange) emphasised the important role that physiologically structured models now play in many areas of population and community ecology. Focussing on comparative approaches for inferring environmental adaptation, Thomas Hansen highlighted the dangers of inappropriately applying old tools to new questions.

Finally, Jarrod Hadfield reminded attendees that where causality is to be inferred, better models are no substitute for a carefully designed experiment. Using multi-membership and recursive mixed-models, he demonstrated that parameters describing a very general class of ?feedback’? mechanism might be inferred from a carefully designed experiment.

(Session 19) Joel Cohen looked at the future of the human food chain in terms of mass and power. We should stop eating meat, or at least pay more for it, to respond to global irregularities. Speakers pointed out that there is more structure in food webs when you classify organisms by body size rather than by taxon. But, what do we lose if we abandon the taxonomic approach? Various speakers showed that dynamic properties of communications are changed by including ontogenetic niche shifts.

The session (Thematic Topic 5, Session 23) started with Chris Thomas asking “what do we do want our landscape to look like in the future?’. Do we want to maintain the historical landscape we are all familiar with, or the species and ecosystems that will occur under climate change?

Mark Rounsevell demonstrated how landscapes might change in the future – raising the critical issue of uncertainty in these projections.. How do we test predictions for a situation that has never been experienced?

The next three talks by J. Bennie, K. Johst and B. Anderson discussed how patchy climate might affect species ‘ ability to persist, whether management can be transferred from static to dynamic landscapes, and the importance of including annual climate and dispersal into distribution modelling.

After seven years’ work, the South West Regional Development Agency this week completed installation of its pioneering Wave Hub, a test centre for marine energy – off the north Cornish coast.

Speaking at the BES annual meeting, Dr Emma Sheehan told delegates about the novel ecological monitoring system her team has developed at the Wave Hub site.

The new, non-destructive video method has been developed by Dr Sheehan and colleagues from PRIMaRE (the Peninsular Research Institute for Marine Renewable Energy) and uses high-definition video mounted on a floating array.

According to Dr Sheehan: By successfully harnessing renewable energy from waves we will help offset the greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere by reducing the demand for fossil fuels. But we need a way to measure the local environmental impacts that result from this method of energy extraction so that future large-scale wave farms can be managed effectively.

The HD video can perform in waves and tidal currents, over variable habitat types and at depth, with relatively little impact to the sea bed. This is important because the Wave Hub site is likely to become a Marine Protected Area, which means that it would not be possible to use traditional methods of surveying the seabed such as trawling or SCUBA teams.

Dr Sheehan told the BES meeting that developing the new video method has been challenging because of the size 8 km2 and character of the site. Studying animals and their habitat at the Wave Hub site is difficult because the seabed is comprised of rocky ledges, boulders and gravel, is 60 m deep and is an extremely exposed site. It is also 8 km2, which is a large area to quantify.

The next stage of Dr Sheehan’s research which also includes developing strategies for monitoring the effects of wave energy generation on sea birds and cetaceans (whales and dolphins) will be to monitor the ecological impact of Wave Hub’s construction and to see how the area’s fauna and habitats change as a result of the development.

Read more about BBC’s coverage of the BES annual meeting at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-11205867.

 More than 350 papers are being presented at this week’s BES annual meeting. One that caught the media’s attention today is Penelope Whitehorn’s study on how some of our rarest bumblebees could be at greater risk of extinction because of inbreeding among their now small and isolated populations, ecologists are warning.

Working on nine Hebridean islands off the west coast of Scotland, Penelope measured moss carder bumblebees’ immune systems and recorded whether or not they suffered from any parasitic infections.

Comparing this data with information on genetic diversity previously gathered by Professor Goulson’s team, Whitehorn was able to show that while inbreeding does not seem to be affecting the bumblebees’ immune systems, it is making them more susceptible to parasitic infection.

She told the BES annual meeting: “We found that isolated island populations of the moss carder bumblebee with lower genetic diversity have an increased prevalence of the gut parasite Crithidia bombi. Our study suggests that as bumblebee populations lose genetic diversity the impact of parasitism will increase, which may increase the extinction risk of threatened populations.”

The findings are important because populations of several bumblebee species have declined dramatically over recent decades. Efforts to conserve bumblebees are vital as their pollination services are of major ecological and commercial importance, so ecologists need a better understanding of the factors affecting bumblebee populations.

The results also have wider significance because many species’ populations are becoming increasingly isolated due to fragmentation of habitats and climate change. Even though these species may not, like the moss carder bumblebee, live on actual offshore islands, many species are now effectively marooned on habitat islands, between which there is limited migration.

“Investigating how inbreeding impacts parasitism and immunity in real island populations provides a proxy to understand the impacts of inbreeding in habitat islands on the mainland. Our findings may be useful for informing conservation efforts to protect threatened insect species whose populations are declining,” Whitehorn says.

Using the Hebrides as a model island system, the next stage of her research will be to find out whether the relationship between inbreeding and parasite prevalence is also affecting other bumblebee species.

Penelope’s supervisor, Professor Dave Goulson at the University of Stirling was interviewed on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme this morning. You can listen again to the interview at http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_8975000/8975440.stm, or read the story on BBC News online http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-11199779

We got deeply into stomachs in Session 13.

It’s clear that going down below the species, feeding niches change as organisms develop and grow. In some ways, this makes the world simpler: there is evidence that body size matters irrespective of species. And this is not just in aquatic systems.

This may increase omnivory, often thought to be a miserable destabilising influence on food webs. We didn’t get a consensus about the effects of omnivory – it clearly depends on the context.

Richard Law

Ecological networks: community robustness and persistence

Today’s session, highlighted by the keynote address by Robert May, provided glimpses of the utility of the network and community perspective.

One idea in particular pervaded today’s talks: the intrinsic robustness of ecological communities.  This inherent robustness, while ubiquitous, appears to manifest itself in a variety of manners.  The architecture of empirical networks works to directly reinforce a community’s ability to respond to perturbation.  Furthermore, both the community’s and species’ abilities to adapt and respond provide direct benefits to the community.

Intriguingly, we learned today that insights gained by studying ecological networks are even catching the attention of the financial sector (though not necessarily because of a deep-set concern about biodiversity loss). Instead, the adaptable, responsive ecological system is being used as a template from which to better understand networks in the financial sector, an arena which recently may have demonstrated itself to be far more vulnerable and susceptible to unexpected perturbations.

It is clear that both ecologically and financially, the community perspective is here to stay.  Only time will tell which of these two areas will “benefit” most in the long run.

Daniel Stouffer