Experts from the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research have announced that the climate change reports used to set Britain’s first carbon budget is “naïvely optimistic”. They have warned that the advised target to cut UK carbon emissions 34% by 2020 will not be strict enough to prevent dangerous levels of global warming.

This comes after 2,500 climate change experts from 80 countries attended a 3-day conference on global warming in Copenhagen last week. At the conference, experts agreed that both the rate and severity of climate change was much greater than previously thought. They also expressed frustration at politicians for failing to take on board the seriousness of the problem.

The Tyndall Centre report analyzed the conclusions of the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), which said in December that ministers should aim to cut UK carbon emissions 34% by 2020, as part of worldwide efforts to limit temperature rise to 2C.

The Tyndall scientists said the committee’s report is “inevitably and significantly compromised” and claimed that the committee was forced to use “highly optimistic and sometimes unclear assumptions” to hit the 2C target.

The Tyndall scientists have called for the UK government to aim to cut emissions 42% by 2020 and stressed the need for cuts come from the economy, rather than buying offsets abroad. These proposals were backed by more than 90 Labour MPs – including four ministerial aides – in a parliamentary petition.

Ministers are due to announce Britain’s first legally binding carbon budget next month.

Read more about this story on the Guardian News Website and the BBC News Website

Information can also be found on the The Friends Of The Earth Website, who commissioned the study with the Co-op Bank.

New research from scientists at the University of East Anglia suggests that large-scale geo-engineering projects are not a viable alternative to carbon reduction strategies in the fight against global warming. However, the researchers conclude that certain geo-engineering schemes could compliment activities aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

The researchers examined a number of geo-engineering proposals, calculating their potential to cool the planet to pre-industrial levels by 2050. Those schemes with the largest cooling potential were sunshades in space and the injection of aerosols into the stratosphere – 10 – 50 km above the Earth’s surface.

Despite the potential for sunshades and aerosols to be used, the continual increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would call for the constant addition of aerosols or areas of sunshades to counteract this. In the case of sunshades, 4 million square km would have to be launched into space initially, followed by 31,000 square km each year thereafter, to keep pace with continual carbon emissions at current rates.

Researchers suggest that schemes to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere are more realistic, and less risky. Seeding the oceans with iron or phosphorus fertiliser were predicted to have little or no effect on cooling, and with a damaging effect on marine wildlife. Similarly, biological pumps, bringing nutrient rich water from the deep to the surface oceans, to be used by organisms to produce more carbon, would have little impact. However, the researchers suggest that planting a large area of forest, producing charcoal and burying it in the soil as ‘biochar’ and the application of carbon and capture and storage technology to biofuels could reduce the temperature to pre-industrial levels by 2300.

Overall, the researchers conclude that no one geo-engineering scheme can be successful on its own, and no combination of schemes can be adopted in the absence of measures to curtail the carbon emissions we produce.

Original text from: Science for Environment Policy

Lenton, T.M. and Vaughan, N.E. (2009). The radiative forcing potential of different climate geoengineering options. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions. 9:2559-2608.

The BES Policy Team recently attended an All Party Parliamentary Environment Group meeting at the House of Commons to discuss the Climate Change Act and the potential implications of its key provisions on economy and society in the UK.

Guest speaker Joan Ruddock (Labour MP) started off the session by describing the Climate Change Act as ‘ground breaking legislation’ that would contribute to the search for a global agreement on reducing emissions. She reviewed the key provisions of the Act and acknowledged that the Cap and Trade system, due to be enforced next year, is likely to be the most effective strategy for reducing C02 emissions in the UK. It is hoped that more schemes will be included in the system and that Cap and Trade strategies alone will save the UK 4 million tonnes of carbon each year by the year 2020.

Gathered from the discussion, participants were calling for the following:
• The need for the Government to begin to take action at the ground level to increase the energy efficiency of existing building stock, for example, provide a framework and budget for the installation of double glazing and insulation in existing buildings;
• A recognition that a global agreement on emission trading is essential; there are fears that European countries may be placed at a competitive disadvantage if they are the only ones required to have a cap and trade on emissions;
• The need for the public to have a more realistic understanding about the size and impact of their carbon footprint and how they can minimise it;
• The need to make public transport more attractive to the community and reduce dependency on private cars.

Participants also voiced concerns about whether it was sensible to press ahead with plans to build a third runway at Heathrow, considering the Government’s commitment to include emissions arising from the aviation industry in reduction targets. Ruddock empathised but argued that it was crucial for the economy to maintain a hub at Heathrow to prevent the UK from being out-competed by other EU members. It was stressed that this was not a decision that had been taken lightly and would be subject to constant scrutiny.

Ruddock concluded her lecture by stating that she intended the December international agreement in Copenhagen to be a ‘negotiation of substance’. The Climate Change Act should ensure that the mechanisms to create a low carbon economy will be in place in the UK by the time these talks commence. It is hoped that this will enable the UK play a big part in the discussions and that UK legislation will provide a ‘blue print for other countries to emulate’ when tacking the difficulties of climate change.

Defra yesterday launched their report ‘Building a Low Carbon Economy’, which sets out plans to move away from our fossil-fuel based society.

Broadly, the Climate Change Bill will put into statute the UK’s targets to reduce CO2 emissions by at least 60% by 2050 and 26% by 2020, against average 1990 emissions.

If a global deal isn’t reached in Copenhagen next year, then the target will be as follows:

• 2008-2012: 3018 million tonnes
• 2013-2017: 2,819 million tonnes
• 2018-2022: 2,570 million tonnes

If the international deal is reached in 2009, then the intended budget for greenhouse gas emission limits will be:

• 208-2012: 3018 million tonnes
• 2013-2017: 2,679 million tonnes
• 2018-2022: 2,245 million tonnes

The government has set a target that 20% of all energy should come from renewable resources by 2020. A Renewable Energy Strategy is due to be published in Spring 2009 that will set clear guidelines on how this target will be achieved. The government also has questionable plans to invest more in nuclear energy in the run up to 2020.

The report includes plans to set clear reductions in carbon emissions from road transport. The King review found that average carbon emissions from cars could feasibly be cut to 100g/km by 2020. The Government is keen to push European legislation to follow suit on this front. This will inevitably have to mean either a reduction in demand from the most polluting vehicles, for example the Porsche Cayenne (358g C/km) and the Range Rover HSE Sport (374g C/km), or prohibitive taxation, failing a change in the wealthy motorists’ mindset.

Ambitious plans have been laid down for the building industry. By 2016, all new housing must be carbon neutral, whilst public buildings must meet this target by 2018, and other non-domestic buildings by 2019.

To tackle issues of waste, the ‘tax escalator’ that has already begun will hopefully reduce emissions from landfill sources and increase recycling.

The government has set progressive targets to reduce the use of inefficient lightbulbs by 2011 in retail and manufacturing, aiming to phase out wasteful practices.

£20 million is being invested by the Department for Transport and the Technology Strategy
Board for a collaborative research programme, aimed at commercialising vehicle technologies that will reduce carbon emissions over the next five to seven years.

Enhancing innovation and building the necessary skills base is at the heart of the Government’s plans to build a low carbon economy in the coming years.

An independent expert committee on climate change has been created, chaired by Lord Turner, which will advise the Government on how to meet its emulous targets.

Read the full document, including specific recommendations in response to the Commission on Environmental Markets and Economic Performance (CEMEP) enquiry, at:

http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/business/commission/pdf/cemep-response.pdf

The future of coal power is now in the hands of the climate change committee, as they are due to set out plans to ‘de-carbonise’ the economy. The committee plans to publish the findings of their report later today.

Environmentalists are keen that the committee sets stringent emission targets from 2020, ensuring that any new coal-fired power stations are fitted with carbon capture and storage technology.

It is expected the climate change committee will recommend interim targets up to 2022, considering the EU aims to reduce emissions by up to 30% by up to 2050.

The executive secretary of the UN climate secretariat, Yvo de Boer said that the international talks on a climate change treaty in Poznan, Poland, could set plans on how rich countries can help the developing world cope with the impact of climate change. It is hoped the treaty will come into effect by 2012.

De Boer said: “I think it is important that countries in Copenhagen reach a political agreement that is a response to what scientists tell us need to be done.”

Currently rainforest lost is reaching unprecedented levels. The talks may offer new direction to how polluting countries can pay tropical countries to conserve their forests, as a means of reducing CO2 emissions, since forest clearance is a huge contributor to climate change.

The Royal Society has joined other academic institutions from around the world in calling for rapid agreement on a timetable to fit carbon capturing technologies to coal-fired power stations, in order to avoid “rapid and irreversible” climate change. Academies from the G8 nations have issued a statement on climate change adaptation and the transition to a low-carbon economy, setting out the key points which must be addressed by the G8 summit in July.

Amongst other points, the societies call on industrialised countries to step-up their efforts to develop greener housing and transport, in the move to a low carbon economy, and urge the G8 nations to commit themselves to power station upgrades to capture CO2. Carbon capture technology is still unproved at the industrial scale but the UK government believes that it could remove 90% of the CO2 released by Britain’s fossil fuel power stations.

The statement has been delivered to the Japanese government, which hosts the next G8 Summit. Japan has this week announced a new climate change policy that aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 60 – 80% by 2050. Japan has encouraged voluntary pledges from industry to cut emissions under a new carbon trading scheme.

Read Press Release from the Royal Society (10 June 2008)

A team of researchers at the University of Plymouth have carried out the first in-situ investigation into the possible effects of anthropogenic CO2 on the world’s oceans. Until now, studies into the effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 on the chemistry of the oceans were carried out in aquaria. The results were published online yesterday (8 June) in Nature.

Studying the effect of high concentrations of CO2 around volcanic vents off the coast of Italy, the researchers found that around these vents, coral and microbial organisms with calcite exoskeletons were absent, with a proliferation of algae in their place. As the concentration of CO2 in the ocean increases, the pH decreases; the oceans become more acidic. The increase in acidity removes calcite and aragonite from the marine environment, which are used by many marine organisms to build their shells.

The researchers describe their results as “quite worrying”. The next step is to undertake more work to see how ocean acidification trickles through marine food webs.

Peat Bogs are hugely significant in the fight against climate change, playing a critical role through carbon sequestration. Peat bogs act as sinks, which fix and store carbon from the atmosphere.

The gradual erosion of England’s Peat Bogs diminishes their capacity to store carbon, and physically releases it in gaseous form – carbon dioxide – when dried out. Mismanagement of peat bogs through overgrazing by sheep and pollution from industry, has resulted in their decline. Overgrazing leads to greater surface runoff, accelerating topsoil loss and releasing carbon.

Fred Worral, a peat specialist of Durham University, says that land-based emissions are possibly as serious as those of aviation and road transport. Peat bog can potentially store up to 5000 tonnes of carbon per hectare. The National Trust organised hundreds of volunteers from energy and conservation bodies to help begin restoring Peat Bogs in England, though it is unlikely they will return to complete blanket bog.

The fight against climate change continues to be fought on several fronts.

The BES would like to invite members and readers of the blog to comment on this article.

Latest figures published in the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration suggest that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have reached a high not seen in 650,000 years. Levels now stand at 387 parts per million (ppm), which is 40% higher than levels seen during the industrial revolution.

There are now fears that anthropogenic induced climate change has spun out of control, given that the average rate of input of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere has been higher in the last seven years (2.1 ppm per year) compared to the 1970-2000 average of 1.5ppm per year. The last four years have seen incremental rises in input of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, the chief greenhouse gas. This comes despite strong talk by governments on tackling climate change and stern advice from economists and top scientists concerning the imperative to reduce greenhouse gases. Some scientists now believe that this increase is down to the Earth losing its capacity to absorb the vast quantities of carbon dioxide being inputted to the atmosphere each year.

See the trend for the last four years on The Earth Systems Research Laboratory.

The BES invites members and readers of the blog to discuss these findings.