China believes it can meet European targets on renewable energy by producing 20% of its energy needs through wind and solar power. Whereas Japan is aiming for 15% in the same time frame, a target that environmentalists call “appalling” yet is in line with the USA’s and Australia’s less ambitious targets.

China’s aims include a three-fold increase in both solar power energy production and in wind energy production targets. As in the UK, China is also promoting energy-efficient lightbulbs, installing 100 million of them this year. China may even beat the USA in solar heating array targets for 2020. Funding for these ambitious targets will come from China’s $590bn economic stimulus package. Over $30bn will be directly spent on environmental projects and even more money put into carbon-efficient transport and electricity transmission systems.

We will all however, have to wait until December when a climate change agreement to supersede the Kyoto Protocol in 2012 should be agreed in Copenhagen. This new agreement will allow everyone to see how far China and other countries are willing to go in formally cutting climate change emissions.

Original articles in the Guardian (10/06/09) and on the BBC website (10/06/09).

The University of Oxford is holding an International Climate Conference together with the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and the UK Met Office entitled “4 Degrees and Beyond: Implications for people, ecosystems and the earth system,” from 28-30 September 2009.

The conference aims to (1) assess the consequences of a change in global temperature above 4°C for a range of systems and sectors and (2) explore the options that are open for avoiding climate changes of this magnitude. The results will form an important background to the COP 15 United Nations Climate Change Conference, in Copenhagen, December 2009, and the inevitable negotiations that will follow COP 15.

The conference is open to anyone with expertise to share, and aims to bring together the best range of experts with the widest expertise from around the world. Registration is open now and abstracts for presentations and posters can be submitted under the themes of: i) Agriculture, Water and Food Security ii) Vulnerable People and Places iii) Ecosystems and Ecosystem Services iv) Earth System Feedbacks and Thresholds, and v) Emissions Reductions. Places are limited and the closing date for abstract submission is 1 May.

Further information at www.eci.ox.ac.uk/4degrees

Experts from the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research have announced that the climate change reports used to set Britain’s first carbon budget is “naïvely optimistic”. They have warned that the advised target to cut UK carbon emissions 34% by 2020 will not be strict enough to prevent dangerous levels of global warming.

This comes after 2,500 climate change experts from 80 countries attended a 3-day conference on global warming in Copenhagen last week. At the conference, experts agreed that both the rate and severity of climate change was much greater than previously thought. They also expressed frustration at politicians for failing to take on board the seriousness of the problem.

The Tyndall Centre report analyzed the conclusions of the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), which said in December that ministers should aim to cut UK carbon emissions 34% by 2020, as part of worldwide efforts to limit temperature rise to 2C.

The Tyndall scientists said the committee’s report is “inevitably and significantly compromised” and claimed that the committee was forced to use “highly optimistic and sometimes unclear assumptions” to hit the 2C target.

The Tyndall scientists have called for the UK government to aim to cut emissions 42% by 2020 and stressed the need for cuts come from the economy, rather than buying offsets abroad. These proposals were backed by more than 90 Labour MPs – including four ministerial aides – in a parliamentary petition.

Ministers are due to announce Britain’s first legally binding carbon budget next month.

Read more about this story on the Guardian News Website and the BBC News Website

Information can also be found on the The Friends Of The Earth Website, who commissioned the study with the Co-op Bank.

New research from scientists at the University of East Anglia suggests that large-scale geo-engineering projects are not a viable alternative to carbon reduction strategies in the fight against global warming. However, the researchers conclude that certain geo-engineering schemes could compliment activities aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

The researchers examined a number of geo-engineering proposals, calculating their potential to cool the planet to pre-industrial levels by 2050. Those schemes with the largest cooling potential were sunshades in space and the injection of aerosols into the stratosphere – 10 – 50 km above the Earth’s surface.

Despite the potential for sunshades and aerosols to be used, the continual increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would call for the constant addition of aerosols or areas of sunshades to counteract this. In the case of sunshades, 4 million square km would have to be launched into space initially, followed by 31,000 square km each year thereafter, to keep pace with continual carbon emissions at current rates.

Researchers suggest that schemes to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere are more realistic, and less risky. Seeding the oceans with iron or phosphorus fertiliser were predicted to have little or no effect on cooling, and with a damaging effect on marine wildlife. Similarly, biological pumps, bringing nutrient rich water from the deep to the surface oceans, to be used by organisms to produce more carbon, would have little impact. However, the researchers suggest that planting a large area of forest, producing charcoal and burying it in the soil as ‘biochar’ and the application of carbon and capture and storage technology to biofuels could reduce the temperature to pre-industrial levels by 2300.

Overall, the researchers conclude that no one geo-engineering scheme can be successful on its own, and no combination of schemes can be adopted in the absence of measures to curtail the carbon emissions we produce.

Original text from: Science for Environment Policy

Lenton, T.M. and Vaughan, N.E. (2009). The radiative forcing potential of different climate geoengineering options. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions. 9:2559-2608.

The BES Policy Team recently attended an All Party Parliamentary Environment Group meeting at the House of Commons to discuss the Climate Change Act and the potential implications of its key provisions on economy and society in the UK.

Guest speaker Joan Ruddock (Labour MP) started off the session by describing the Climate Change Act as ‘ground breaking legislation’ that would contribute to the search for a global agreement on reducing emissions. She reviewed the key provisions of the Act and acknowledged that the Cap and Trade system, due to be enforced next year, is likely to be the most effective strategy for reducing C02 emissions in the UK. It is hoped that more schemes will be included in the system and that Cap and Trade strategies alone will save the UK 4 million tonnes of carbon each year by the year 2020.

Gathered from the discussion, participants were calling for the following:
• The need for the Government to begin to take action at the ground level to increase the energy efficiency of existing building stock, for example, provide a framework and budget for the installation of double glazing and insulation in existing buildings;
• A recognition that a global agreement on emission trading is essential; there are fears that European countries may be placed at a competitive disadvantage if they are the only ones required to have a cap and trade on emissions;
• The need for the public to have a more realistic understanding about the size and impact of their carbon footprint and how they can minimise it;
• The need to make public transport more attractive to the community and reduce dependency on private cars.

Participants also voiced concerns about whether it was sensible to press ahead with plans to build a third runway at Heathrow, considering the Government’s commitment to include emissions arising from the aviation industry in reduction targets. Ruddock empathised but argued that it was crucial for the economy to maintain a hub at Heathrow to prevent the UK from being out-competed by other EU members. It was stressed that this was not a decision that had been taken lightly and would be subject to constant scrutiny.

Ruddock concluded her lecture by stating that she intended the December international agreement in Copenhagen to be a ‘negotiation of substance’. The Climate Change Act should ensure that the mechanisms to create a low carbon economy will be in place in the UK by the time these talks commence. It is hoped that this will enable the UK play a big part in the discussions and that UK legislation will provide a ‘blue print for other countries to emulate’ when tacking the difficulties of climate change.

The UK Government is expected to give the go-ahead to the development of a third runway at London Heathrow later today, following delays to the announcement due to Cabinet unrest.

A new 200mph rail link between London and Birmingham, with a spur from Heathrow to St Pancras station will also be announced.

The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats have pledged to cancel the expansion of Heathrow if either win the next General Election, however certain legal restrictions may make this costly, necessitating compensation to the airport’s operator, BAA.

Ministers have described the development as ‘green Heathrow‘ and has offered assurances that EU rules on air and noise pollution will not be breached. Concerns have been raised by NGOs, such as Greenpeace, that expansion of the airport will lead to the Government breaching its own stringent targets on greenhouse gas emissions: a reduction of 80% on 1990 levels by 2050.

At a recent meeting in the House of Commons, Chairman of the Environment Agency (EA) Lord Chris Smith, outlined plans to improve the EA’s delivery functions throughout his tenancy as Chair.

Lord Smith described the EA as an “unusual body” and a “diverse beast,” insofar as it is “part deliverer, part regulator and part adviser.”

The EA is said to be fairly bureaucratic at the moment, and Lord Smith is optimistic bureaucracy can be reduced, with more resources allocated to delivering EA objectives.

There has reportedly been some opposition from EA Officers towards moves to incorporate micro-hydro-electric generators in river systems. As Lord Smith pointed out, the need to combat climate change through reducing emissions must be balanced with other concerns. Some researchers believe that sensitive use of small hydro-electric installations would have a limited impact on the ecology of the river system, and this initiative will doubtlessly be explored further.

Lord Smith mentioned the need to improve communications with local communities. Local knowledge holds immense value in terms of setting planning and conservation objectives, and must be considered critically alongside scientific recommendations.

Touching on the subject of the third runway evidenced Lord Smith’s genuine commitment to social, ecological and environmental concerns. Aside from the issue of increased greenhouse gas emissions, Nitrogen pollution from emissions already presents a very real and serious health hazard to residents proximal to Heathrow. A third runway would massively increase the output of harmful noxious gases such as Nitrogen dioxide and breach European Environmental safe emissions limits.

In terms of Climate Change, the EA’s primary responsibility is to help those unable to cope with the consequences. Lord Smith backed the use of Carbon & Capture and Storage technology in new coal-fired power stations, although he recognised the existing shortcomings in available technology.

Speaking of successes, Lord Smith announced success in reducing input of pollutants to the environment, highlighting a 59% and 48% reduction of Mercury and Cadmium respectively, to our freshwater systems over the last year.

In terms of regulating polluters, Lord Smith expressed the need to pursue the “bad guys”, i.e. the worst polluters, with more frequent visits from EA officers, whilst reducing inspections to companies and individuals showing marked improvements.

When asked on how to bridge the gap between EA ‘field agents’ and policy-makers, Lord Smith said that The Environment Agency will be a statutory consultee of the Planning Act. This will hopefully streamline communication

The talk was broad in scope, President-elect Barack Obama even got a look-in (i.e. alluding to Obama’s policy plans to Ministers can be an effective persuasive tool!). Overall the outlook for the EA looks set to be very positive whilst Lord Chris Smith remains as Chair.

Check out the EA’s website here for further news and updates.

Seasons Greetings from the BES Science Policy Team to readers of the Blog!

The River Evenlode, Oxfordshire: Image courtesy of the author, Charlie Butt

In a recent interview with the Guardian, Faith Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency, revealed oil production will plateau by 2020, peaking within 20 years.

It is anticipated that the extraction of tar sands will have to increase in order to fill the deficit left by faltering oil supplies. Tar sand extraction is known to be immensely environmentally damaging, and although an increase in tar sand production would contribute to global energy needs by 2% within this time frame, although the nearly 2 million barrels of oil produced would inevitably inhibit greenhouse gas emissions targets.

This revelation comes weeks after the Government released their Building a Low Carbon Economy report, setting out plans to ‘de-carbonise’ the economy. If commitments are met, and a rapid frameshift in the public mindset ensues, it might be possible to wean ourselves off of oil as well as avoid a climate change ‘tipping point’. Such a ‘tipping point’ would result in climatic positive feedback, whereby increased temperatures result in further temperature rises causing a breakdown in natural systems that we depend on, with a chaotic outcome for life on earth.

The media and entertainment services have a responsibility to change attitudes and encourage greener lifestyles. Road transport makes up most of the UK’s transport emissions, making for a key target in transport emissions reductions. The immensely popular BBC TV series ‘Top Gear’ is thought to have played a part in dampening enthusiasm for ‘green’ cars. However, encouragingly they recently praised Honda’s new hydrogen-fuelled FCX Clarity, which performs like an ordinary car and emits only water. Although hydrogen fuel celled-cars are still in their infancy in terms of mass production and feasibility, broad media support for alternative fuels such as hybrid technology and electric vehicles can only help meet emissions targets and help combat climate change.

As the recent global financial meltdown has illustrated, individual economies are now so tightly interconnected that, much like in natural systems, problems and perturbations in one part of the system create shockwaves through the wider system, much like the entire global financial system. The concept of safe, independent economies is clearly no longer relevant and we must now take a systems-based approach to solving complex problems. Britain has taken the lead in moving towards a low-carbon economy, but it is essential the rest of the world gets on board too. This will certainly require developed countries to provide financial assistance as well as technological expertise to developing countries.

The world depends on energy, but cannot continue on the current path of unsustainable growth and pollution. Climate change is not an insurmountable problem but the clock is ticking and so the moves towards sustainable development and clean technology must accelerate.

Check developments of the 14th Climate Change Conference of the Parties here:

http://www.poznan2008.com/

Read the Government’s Building a Low Carbon Economy Report here:

http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/business/commission/pdf/cemep-response.pdf

The House of Lords EU Committee have produced a report calling for an overhaul of the Emissions Trading System (ETS), in order to meet ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG)reduction targets, since it is the main tool of the EU to reduce carbon emissions.

Although the EU ETS underpins UK and EU climate change policy, its effectiveness in delivering its aim (to reduce GHGs) remains unproven. The Committee strongly urges that the System be reformed, despite reservations from various member states. For example Poland have expressed opposition to auctioning of carbon permits, largely due to their heavy dependence on coal burning for power generation.

However the Committee have called for all allowances to be auctioned by 2013, and if exceptions are made to member states it will be on the condition that clean coal technologies are developed and trialed during the transition phase.

Concern has also been expressed over ‘carbon leakage’ – that is industries producing excessive emissions relocate to countries with less stringent regulations – although these industries are in the minority. The Committee recommended these industries be identified by 2009, but no decision will be made to allocate them ‘free emission permits’ – that is the freedom to continue polluting – until after the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen in December 2009.

The Committee identified two risk areas regarding the ETS:

• Industries will not comply with regulations
• The ETS will not be joined up to global trading schemes and will therefore not fulfill their potential

Speaking about the report Lord Sewel, Chairman of the House of Lords EU Sub-Committee on Environment and Agriculture, said:

“Linking the EU ETS to other emissions trading schemes will be essential in order to maximise its environmental performance and minimise its economic costs. Worryingly, the prospects for such links appear to be poor.”

“Both the UK and the EU’s climate change policy is riding on the success of the ETS, which as yet is far from guaranteed. A timid deal at the summit of EU leaders could produce the worst of all worlds.”

The report will be available online shortly after publication at: http://www.parliament.uk/parliamentary_committees/lords_s_comm_d.cfm

Today marks the beginning of the 14th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations on Climate Change.

The meeting has the following aims;

• Agree on a plan of action and programmes of work for the final year of negotiations after a year of comprehensive and extensive discussions on crucial issues relating to future commitments, actions and cooperation
• Make significant progress on a number of on-going issues required to enhance further the implementation of the Convention and the Kyoto Protocol, including capacity-building for developing countries, reducing emissions from deforestation (REDD), technology transfer and adaptation.
• Advance understanding and commonality of views on “shared vision” for a new climate change regime
• Strengthen commitment to the process and the agreed timeline

EU Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas stated recently that: “Even if it is too early to expect major breakthroughs, the Poznan conference must shift gear from exploratory discussions to concrete negotiations.”

Parties have less than a year to agree on strengthened action on mitigation, adaptation, finance and technology.

It is hoped that the climate talks will form the basis of global deal in Copenhagen at the end of 2009.

View the full schedule here.