Quality Assurance of Peak District National Park Wildfire Management and Planning Document 2022.
Abstract
This work describes the design and development the Peak District National Park Wildfire Risk Assessment 2022 to evaluate the risk of wildfire across a large focus area of the Peak District National Park in the UK. A tiered approach comprising an indexing system based on expert solicitation (Tier 1), historical data (Tier 2) and computer modelling (Tier 3) was used. The report also highlighted the challenges of designing an indexing system (Tier 1) as there is double counting and dependencies between categories highlighting the complexity of the processes which underpin wildfire risk. The report highlights the role of engaging with a range of stakeholders from land management, scientific and public bodies. The review also highlights the limited information available on vegetation cover and the ability to apply existing predictive models of wildfire spread in fuels relevant to the UK. While predictive modelling is a powerful tool in the assessment of wildfire risk, translation of existing approaches to the UK context is challenging and an area of significant ongoing research. These tools will require sustained development and operational support to be able to predict future risk in a paradigm of changing climate and changing land uses.